Friday, December 23, 2011

Senegal: Pressure, fear and uncertainty ahead of polls

Wade insists he can run again
Until six months ago, the chance of instability, major violence (or call it civil unrest) in Senegal was as slim as the Iranian leader, Ahmedinejad finally accepting that the Holocaust did happen.

But with less than two months before the Senegalese voters head to the polls, that chance is now as big as average British Premiership club, Tottenham finishing this season without any trophy.

For once, the vulnerability of this great nation is quickly emerging.

Latest events have shown that Senegal is no longer different from any other country on the continent. Continuous peace is possible. But something else other than peace is also possible.

First, it was the wild June 27 street riots that ended with the burning and looting of houses of government ministers and other senior officials. This followed the torching of several official vehicles four days earlier by anti-government supporters over planned constitutional amendment.

Deadly clash
And yesterday (just three days before Christmas), a clash between opposition supporters and ‘ruling party militants’ ended with one death and at least two injuries. It took place in the early afternoon when firebrand former ruling Socialist Party youth leader and Mayor of a Dakar Municipality, Barthelemy Dias and his colleagues were reportedly attacked by dozens ruling party militants in pick-up trucks. The whole thing was like a crime movie.

By Sheriff Bojang Jr.

A live TV footage showed Barthelemy holding two pistols and firing at a certain direction. He later told journalists that he was shooting at the alleged attackers in self-defense.

As I am writing this piece, there is a rising concern and anxiety here. In less than two hours, both the ruling party and the opposition will be out on the street for separate congresses. The venues for both events are less than two kilometers apart. We can only hope and pray that it all ends in peace.

The big U-turn that changed the game
The recent protests and violence in Senegal surround the legality of President Abdoulaye Wade’s bid for a third term in February. When he came to power in 2000, he promised to limit the presidential term to two.

The new leader even questioned why African leaders often stay in power for ‘ages’. This was the Wade that most Senegalese voters voted for, the veteran politician that was loved and cherished by his people and seen across the world as a symbol of hope and the ultimate change for Africa.

In 2001, he won a bigger praise when he showed Senegal would no longer be business as usual by effecting key constitutional amendment limiting presidential term limits to two. He also cut each term from seven to five.

Wade started talking tough against corruption, nepotism and every other similar everyday terms and buzzwords used by politicians (especially new ones in power) to win the hearts and minds of their subjects. He embarked on major infrastructural projects… big roads, big bridges etc. He became the ‘promised messiah’ to many of his loyalists.

At a 2007 press conference after he won a second term, the question of his bid for a third term came up for the first time and the incumbent leader declared, ‘In the 2001 constitution, I set a limit of two terms. It is not possible. I cannot run again because the constitution forbids it. I therefore have decided not to run again for president in 2012.’
protester urges Wade to quit

In September 2009, Wade triggered controversy when he made a big U-turn by announcing he would seek another term in 2012. ‘If God gives me a long life and keeps my brain and my health in shape, I will be candidate again’, he declared to the shock and surprise of many people and to the anger of his opponents.

The incumbent leader attributed this change of position to ‘the people’s hunger for democratic continuity’ and general satisfaction over his rule.

Wade and his officials argue that the 2001 constitutional reforms came into effect a year after he was elected for the first term and that the reforms did not apply to that term.

Circumventing the constitution
The opposition came out barking and accused the president of trying to ‘circumvent’ the constitution to suit his needs. Macky Sall, former Prime Minister and manager of Wade’s 2000 election campaign (now opponent) described his ex-boss’ third term bid as a joke.

Professor Abdoulaye Bathily of main opposition coalition, Benno Siggil Senegal accused Wade of ‘playing with fire’ and said the opposition would not allow him to go a for a third term.

Over the past few months, the debate has been taken over by legal experts. Professor El Hadj Mbodj, one of the most prominent and respected constitutional experts in Senegal accused President Wade of misleading the population ‘over a simple constitutional matter.’ The 2001 reforms, according to him, apply to the very day Wade came to power.

‘The president will exhaust his cartridges at the end of his current term and he can therefore not take part in the 2012 election’, Mbodj told me in an interview at his residence.

Other opponents and experts have described the president’s third term bid as ‘constitutional coup d’etat’.

But on the other side of the political and legal divide, the president has his own backing. Prime Minister, Souleyemane Ndene Ndiaye says ‘the constitution states clearly that our president can run for another term.’ Ndiaye has in fact been chosen by Wade to lead his 2012 campaign.

Failed constitutional reforms plan
While the issue of third term lingers, Wade’s popularity and authority were once tested on June 23 when he formally presented a key electoral reform bill to the parliament. Article 33 of the constitution stipulates that in the event no candidate obtains the absolute majority of votes cast, there will be a second round of voting.

In fact in the February 2000 election, Wade lost in the first round to his predecessor and longtime opponent, Abdou Diouf who managed to get just 41.3% of the votes. Wade won in the second round with 58.5% against Diouf’s 41.5%.

Barthelemy Dias at the June 23 protest
In the constitutional reforms bill he sent to the parliament in June, a candidate can be declared president with just 25% of the votes cast, instead of the current 51%. He had also wanted to create an elected post of vice-president.

For the opposition and the civil society, this was too much for the country. They mobilized the biggest gathering in Senegal’s political history under the banner of the "Don't Touch My Constitution" coalition, to protest against the bill.

As members of parliament were debating the bill, thousands of protesters gathered outside the parliament and other major centers across Dakar and other towns and villages to express their disapproval of the bill. Most of the protesters arrived at the venue as early as 5 a.m.

The opposition accused Wade of flirting with the constitution to remain president at any cost. Mbaye Niang, a parliamentarian from the main opposition coalition, Benno Siggil Senegal said the proposed law would mean "a president of the republic can be elected against the will of 75% percent of the population.’

One of the high profile critics of the proposed law is the Grammy-Award winning singer, Youssou Ndoure. He described the move as "abuse of authority".

The protesters include hundreds of members of Yen a Mare (We’re Fed Up), a group of local rappers and music producers. Since the formation of the group earlier this year, it has been making national and international headlines for its outspokenness against the Wade regime.

The protests ended in riots. At least a dozen government vehicles and public transports were set ablaze. Government offices and houses of ministers and ruling party members were ransacked and dozens of people, including prominent human rights activist, Alioune Tine were injured. Tine was reportedly attacked by armed militants of the ruling party.

At 15:00 GMT and amidst continuous protests, Justice Minister Cheikh Tidiane Sy who was presenting the bill at the parliament announced that the president had dropped the constitutional reform plans ‘after listening to the concerns of the MPs and the religious leaders’. This followed a lengthy telephone conversation between Sy and the president while the MPs patiently waited for the outcome. His announcement was received with rounds of applause and jubilation by the parliamentarians both in the ruling and the opposition benches.

In the run up to the debate, several members of Wade’s own party were critical of the proposed law.

Too little, too late
The veteran leader’s decision to drop the bill was too late to calm the protesters down. Anger and frustration continued with isolated riots across Dakar for the next three days. On June 27, thousands of young people took to the streets again, attacking and looting houses of ministers and other top government officials.
It is estimated that property worth millions of dollars were vandalized or looted.

President Wade had remained silent and out of the public eye for three weeks following the riots. On July 14, he appeared on state television, surrounded by his officials and supporters for a state of the nation address.
The incumbent leader, looking relaxed, described the rioters as bandits and said he had given ‘firm instructions to the security forces to protect the nation and the population’.

Early polls and power sharing
anti-gov't protesters set vehicles ablaze
In the one hour broadcast, he mocked that the opposition parties are afraid of elections and challenged them for early polls within 60 days.

‘I can call a presidential election ahead of schedule in order to preserve a peaceful social climate and national unity. The constitution allows me to do that and I am ready to do so if the opposition is in a hurry and believes that it controls the majority of the electorate’, Wade declared.

Wade also pledged to share power with the opposition, but warned that the pledge ‘should be seen as a facility, a show of good faith and openness’ and not an obligation on his part.

To Wade’s supporters, his call for early polls and willingness to share power manifest his political maturity and sense of responsibility. But for the opposition, the incumbent leader was merely diverting attention from core issues surrounding the legality over his third term bid.

In a statement, Benno Siggil Senegal declares ‘We are ready for elections anytime but any election must be held without the participation of Abdoulay Wade because he cannot run for third term’.

Wade earlier invited the opposition for dialogue, but the opposition leaders had laid down their own demands before they accept any dialogue.

One of these demands is for the president to step down. He indicates he will not do that. Peace!

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